How to judge a tipster's track record

Last updated: 13 July 2026 · 6 min read

Most tipster records are marketing, not evidence. Here's what an honest record looks like, the numbers that actually matter, and the questions to ask before trusting anyone's results — including ours.

Why most records can't be trusted

• Losing tips quietly deleted, leaving a highlight reel.
• Results shared as screenshots after full-time — impossible to verify.
• Cherry-picked windows: "+40% this month" from an account that's been losing for a year.
• Odds quoted that were never actually available when the tip went out.
• Affiliate tipsters paid a share of your losses by the bookmakers they send you to — their incentive is that you lose.

The five things an honest record shows

• Every tip published before kickoff, at a permanent address that can't be edited afterwards.
• The odds recorded at publish time — not best-case prices added later.
• All results in one place, forever: wins, losses and voids alike.
• Stakes declared in advance (in units), so profit can actually be computed.
• Settlement rules stated up front — 90 minutes, how voids count — so no result is a judgement call.

ROI beats win rate

A win percentage on its own is noise. The number that matters is return on investment: profit divided by total amount staked. A tipster winning 60% at average odds of 1.50 is losing you 10% of turnover; one winning 40% at 2.80 is making you 12%. If someone leads with "80% win rate" and no odds, they are hoping you don't know how prices work.

Sample size: the hard truth

Luck dominates small samples. Over 20 tips, anyone can look brilliant or hopeless. A genuinely profitable bettor can easily be down after 100 bets, and a bad one can be up. A fair rule of thumb: treat anything under a few hundred settled tips as "not proven yet" — and be suspicious of anyone selling certainty on the back of one hot month.

In that spirit: our own archive is young, and we ask you to judge it by exactly the rules on this page. Every pick is published to a permanent page before kickoff, settled against the final score, and stays visible — wins, losses and voids. It will take hundreds of tips for the record to mean something. That's the point of keeping it public from day one.

Red flags that end the conversation

• "Guaranteed wins" or "fixed matches" — always a scam, no exceptions.
• A record that starts three weeks ago, with no history before it.
• Pressure to subscribe "before the streak ends".
• No losing tip visible anywhere on the account.
• Prices in the record you can't find at any bookmaker.

Bet responsibly

Betting is for adults (18+) and should only ever be entertainment paid for with money you can afford to lose. If it stops feeling that way, stop — our responsible gambling page lists free, confidential organisations that can help.